No manufacturer has complete visibility into every production decision across the industry. However, based on available evidence, several factors appear to be contributing. Here is our plain-language read on what's actually happening and why.

The military is eating the supply chain. The biggest brands in U.S. commercial ammunition — Federal, Remington, CCI, Speer — are all owned by The Kinetic Group, which was acquired in late 2024 by CSG, a Czech defense conglomerate. CSG's CEO stated publicly that growing military sales was the primary reason they bought Kinetic. That wasn't a surprise — CSG's defense revenue grew 55% in 2025, driven largely by the war in Ukraine. In April 2026, they signed a €250 million artillery ammunition contract with a European customer. In June 2026, Federal signed a direct agreement with the U.S. Army.

The brands that stock most American gun store shelves are now owned by a foreign defense contractor with a war to supply. Military contracts get filled first. Commercial distribution gets what's left. (Opinion — see disclaimer below.)

The Lake City Army Ammunition Plant — the single largest producer of military small caliber ammunition in the country, and historically a source of commercial overflow that reaches civilian distribution — was shut down by a worker strike from April 4 through May 7, 2026. Over 1,300 workers walked out. They came back when a new deal was ratified on May 6. That's a month of lost production at the most important ammunition facility in America. You don't make that up overnight. Military contracts get backfilled first. Commercial distribution waits.

But the strike is only part of the Lake City story. Lake City operates under a program that allows Winchester — the plant's contractor — to sell production overruns to the civilian market. That program supplies roughly 30% of the civilian 5.56 market. As military demand increases, that overrun shrinks — less goes to your gun store because more goes to the military. That's been happening throughout 2026 regardless of the strike.

Additionally, Democratic lawmakers introduced legislation in March 2026 to ban Lake City and similar government-contracted facilities from selling ammunition to civilians entirely. The bill is co-sponsored by Senators Warren and Kim and Representatives Garcia and Raskin. It hasn't passed — but it's active, it's serious, and if it moves, 30% of civilian 5.56 supply disappears by law.

A new ammunition category is pulling production away from you. Drone Round Defense — which shares leadership, facilities, and production infrastructure with Freedom Munitions, LAX Ammunition, Ammo Load, and X-Treme Components in Lewiston, Idaho — is manufacturing anti-drone 5.56 and 7.62 ammunition for military and law enforcement only. U.S. Army troops trained with it in April 2026. The Navy has its own version in development. Additional calibers — 7.62 NATO and 6.8x51mm — are already in the pipeline.

This isn't a separate factory. It's the same building, same equipment, same workforce that makes commercial ammunition — now producing military-only product. We know this firsthand: X-Treme Components was our primary supplier of brass and projectiles. In February 2026 — the same month we began observing FMJ disappearing from national distribution — we saw purchase orders pushed back three to six months. This is not an occurrence that just happened to Firehole. As a small OEM we are in constant communication with other small OEMs — this is a consistent theme. We found other suppliers. Many manufacturers didn't, or couldn't. That pushback moved through the supply chain and showed up as empty distributor shelves. (Opinion — see disclaimer below.)

Make no mistake, this is not the only business to make this change. It just happens to be one where a lot of the industry went for components and as such is quite visible. Do we harbor ill will toward any of these companies who have made this switch? Not at all — business is business. Facts are facts equally as well.

The raw materials are under global pressure. Smokeless powder requires nitrocellulose. Nitrocellulose requires cotton linters. A significant portion of the world's cotton linter supply comes from China. Global defense manufacturers are now bidding against each other for what's available — and winning those bids means the commercial ammunition market loses. AAC, a major budget-tier ammunition producer, shut down production entirely in 2026 because their powder supplier diverted its full inventory to military contracts. AAC has announced plans to build their own powder production, but that's at least a year away from solving anything.

Canada announced a $355.7 million investment in domestic nitrocellulose production in March 2026. The United States Congress introduced the Ammunition Supply Chain Act in 2024 to address the same vulnerability. Canada is building. The U.S. is still discussing it.

Imports aren't filling the gap. A meaningful share of American ammunition has historically been imported. That buffer has shrunk — disrupted by a combination of geopolitical, logistical, and regulatory pressures. Less import supply means more pressure on domestic manufacturers who are already stretched.

Panic hasn't started yet — but it will accelerate things when it does. Right now most retail shelves still look manageable. When they don't — and the indicators suggest they won't for long — information travels faster than it did in 2020. Inventory trackers, forums, and social media will compress what used to be a weeks-long awareness cycle into hours. Civilian buying will accelerate before most people realize there's a problem. That's the nature of modern shortage cycles.